Suchergebnisse

La relacion entre la productividad, el crecimiento industrial y las exportaciones de productos manufacturados es objeto de creciente consideracion en los estudios sobre el desarrollo y la politica comercial, ya que la productividad es un elemento determinante de las ventajas comparativas en el mediano y largo plazo. Este articulo analiza dicha relacion en el Brasil, donde la productividad industrial muestra aumentos decrecientes desde mediados de los anos setenta, estudiando dicha desaceleracion y sus causas, entre ellas las condiciones macroeconomicas, las estrategias comerciales, las politicas de crecimiento y las tendencias tecnologicas. (Revista de la CEPAL/DÜI)

This paper, written as a tribute to Albert Hirschman's work and thought, deals with the patterns of structural change and financing economic growth in Brazil from 1950 to 1980. Special attention in given to the role of external finance and to the evolving forms of public sector intervention. Intersectoral income shifts provoked both by inflation and economic policy measures are recognized as a key element in a growth process frequently constrained by unfavorable external events. The paper shows that concerns with the disappearance of the external and internal financing capacity of the public sector were recurrent in our economic history. The result has often been that the government lost the capability of being a coordinating element for a new growth strategy. This challenge has been faced and overcome more than once in the past, something which will have to be tried again if the Brazilian society wishes to consolidate both democracy and a just and healthy economic system.

RESUMO O artigo analisa a distribuição de renda brasileira, com o objetivo de identificar em que medida políticas econômicas, desempenho macroeconômico e mudanças na estrutura da força de trabalho estão relacionadas à desigualdade. Há evidências de aumentos de longo prazo na desigualdade, especialmente entre 1960 e 1970. As tendências de longo prazo não parecem ser afetadas pelo desempenho econômico, embora a estagnação da década de 1980 tenha levado a perdas absolutas de renda para todos os indivíduos, exceto aqueles no percentil superior. O comportamento de curto prazo, por outro lado, parece ter sido influenciado pelo desempenho econômico: há evidências de que o crescimento melhora a equidade, enquanto a alta inflação tem o efeito oposto. Uma análise de decomposição destaca a importância da educação na explicação da desigualdade, mas aponta para mudanças na estrutura da força de trabalho como o principal fator na contabilização de mudanças na desigualdade desde meados da década de 1970.

The last 20 years were a period of major political, economic, social, and institutional reform in Brazil. In the first half of the 1990s, reformers opened the economy to foreign trade and both direct and portfolio investment, sold off a number of large and traditional state-owned enterprises, discontinued myriad price and output regulations, and gradually erected a new regulatory framework. Except for trade liberalization, which was largely completed by the mid-1990s, reforms accelerated after the Real Plan. The consolidation of price stability and market-oriented reforms, in turn, required a number of institutional changes including the strengthening and/or creation of competition and regulatory agencies, and the enactment of new legislation to promote fiscal discipline, improve regulation of financial markets, and protect consumers. This paper focuses on this gradual, piecemeal, loosely coordinated process of partial state retrenchment. The analysis focuses especially on the relative roles of ideology, policy packaging, and pragmatism in advancing reforms; how well reform implementation went; to what extent their results were as expected; and whether state retrenchment is here to stay. We argue that pragmatism - understood as a conduct that emphasizes practicality and stresses practical consequences as constituting the essential criterion in determining action - has been the main driving force behind reforms. In contrast to other Latin American countries, ideology and politics have played a lesser role in fostering market reforms in Brazil. In particular, although reforms were often bundled together with other urgent or popular policies, to facilitate their approval, they were not enacted as a coherent, overall change in development strategy, and more as a piecemeal, flexible, mostly disconnected reform process. Pragmatism led to market reforms that, as a rule, were gradual, usually incomplete and only loosely coordinated with one another. Although these characteristics sometimes facilitated reform politics - opening windows of opportunity and reducing political opposition - they also reduced the efficacy of reforms. In particular, pragmatism was insufficient to generate complementary, second-generation reforms. The overall impact of reforms has not been significant in Brazil, with only a marginal acceleration in GDP growth, due entirely to higher productivity growth. To the extent that pragmatism reflects an approach in which the end results are the main justification for reform, the failure to spur growth after over a decade of reforms puts their sustainability at risk.

Having reviewed Brazil's macroeconomic and trade performance during the last decade, the authors evaluate, on the basis of the experience of the 1980s, the threats posed by macroeconomic conditions to the successful completion of the ongoing trade liberalization process in this country. They conclude outlining policy prescriptions that may lessen these threats. (DÜI-Sen)

Evolução recente do mercado de trabalho e perspectivas / José Márcio Camargo -- Mercado de trabalho no Brasil : passado, presente e futuro / Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho -- Evolução recente do mercado de trabalho metropolitano e perspectivas / João Saboia -- Panorama do mercado de trabalho brasileiro : uma análise de temas recentes / Gabriel Ulyssea -- A condição "nem-nem" entre os jovens é permanente? / Naércio Menezes Filho, Pedro Henrique Cabanas e Bruno Komatsu -- A queda da informalidade no Brasil entre 2002 e 2012 / Rodrigo Leandro de Moura e Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho -- Expansão do emprego formal e tamanho das empresas : 1995-2011 / Carlos Henrique L. Corseuil, Rodrigo Leandro de Moura e Lauro Ramos -- Transições no mercado de trabalho / André Portela Souza, Vladimir Ponczek e Eduardo Zylberstajn -- Rotatividade do trabalho e incentivos da legislação trabalhista / Gustavo Gonzaga e Rafael Cayres Pinto